By Jon Chown
SANTA CRUZ — Santa Cruz County officials are preparing for a potentially historic El Niño winter that could bring powerful storms, widespread flooding and coastal water levels as much as 2 feet higher than predicted tides.
The county’s Office of Response, Recovery and Resilience presented a winter preparedness report to the Board of Supervisors on Oct. 20, outlining efforts to improve flood defenses, clear drainage systems, strengthen emergency notifications and prepare shelters for residents who are forced out of their homes by a storm.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 95% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter and a 75% chance of a historic event between October and December.
“This could be a record-breaking year for El Nino. It’s already caused ocean waters to rise about half a foot because of a marine heat wave in the eastern Pacific,” said Bryan Garcia of the National Weather Service, one of many to speak during the presentation to supervisors.
He said nothing is for certain, but the high probability for problems means we should prepare like it will happen. However, he cautioned, a powerful El Niño does not necessarily mean Santa Cruz County will experience unusually heavy rainfall. The connection between El Niño and wet winters is stronger in Southern California than here, making local precipitation more difficult to predict. The bigger concern may be along the coastline.
“We’re going to have king tides around Thanksgiving, Christmas and again around Martin Luther King Jr. Day,” he said, pointing out when the county’s coastal areas might be most vulnerable to flooding.
Garcia said a Kelvin wave, a slow-moving pulse of warm ocean water, has added another half foot to the sea level already and could raise it another six inches. Combine that with the king tide and a strong storm and you’ve got a terrible situation brewing.
Road Drainage Work Expands
One of the largest changes in winter preparations involves the county’s road drainage system. The county expects to clear approximately 250 to 270 miles of roads and roadside drainage ditches this year, compared with 204 miles last year and 83 miles two years ago.
Hopefully, the extra effort helps prevent stormwater from accumulating on roadways and reduces the potential for flooding. Crews are also cleaning culverts, inspecting bridges, clearing drainage channels and preparing stormwater pumping stations. Work has focused on areas with recurring flooding problems, including Rio del Mar Flats, Soquel Village, Corralitos Creek, Pinto Lake ditch and other locations.
The county has doubled its winter on-call road crews from one team to two, positioned heavy equipment throughout the county and identified emergency contractors available around the clock. Sandbags and other flood-fighting supplies are being staged at county and fire department facilities. The county also has 250 feet of portable flood barrier available for deployment.
Pajaro River Improvements
Flood control agencies are also working to strengthen the Pajaro River levee system, which suffered a catastrophic breach during storms in March 2023. The Pajaro Regional Flood Management Agency identified six projects intended to improve the system’s ability to withstand high water this winter.
They include constructing seepage blankets and berms along the upper 2 miles of the Pajaro River levee system, removing vegetation and sediment, replacing an aging culvert and improving drainage pump equipment. Vegetation thinning along the Monterey County side of the river was completed in early October, with work on the Santa Cruz County side expected to be finished by the start of November.
Crews have also removed accumulated sediment from Corralitos and Salsipuedes creeks, and from beneath the Highway 152 bridge.
Emergency Alerts and Evacuations
County officials say the storms of 2023 exposed weaknesses in public warnings, emergency coordination and assistance for displaced residents. Since then, the county has introduced CruzAware, a notification system designed to provide faster, more targeted emergency alerts.
The system includes 41 prepared messages in English and Spanish covering flood warnings, evacuation orders, road closures, shelter openings and other emergencies. Residents can receive notifications by telephone, text message or email, and can select their preferred language.
Volunteers with the Community Emergency Response Team have been going door to door in vulnerable neighborhoods, distributing storm preparation information and explaining evacuation procedures. Those communities include Felton Grove, Gold Gulch, Paradise Park, Santa Cruz’s Beach Flats and Tannery neighborhoods, downtown Soquel, Capitola Village, Rio del Mar, Interlaken and Pajaro Dunes. The county hopes to reach approximately 2,000 residents and businesses through the effort.
The county is also preparing four public libraries to serve as resilience centers during extreme weather or extended power outages. The Boulder Creek, Felton, Scotts Valley and Aptos libraries could provide residents with shelter from extreme temperatures, places to charge electronic devices and access to emergency information. Officials said the locations would open as needed, with announcements distributed through county communication channels.
“Many of these improvements and efforts come from lessons learned straight from the winter storms of 2023,” said Amanda Goolings, an emergency services analyst for the county.
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CHP Urges Drivers to Prepare for Strong El Niño Winter
The California Highway Patrol is urging Central Coast residents to prepare for heavy rain, possible flooding and dangerous road conditions as a strong El Niño weather pattern threatens to bring severe storms this winter.
“With El Niño bringing severe weather our way, keeping our coastal communities safe is our highest priority,” said Mike Alvarez, chief of the CHP Coastal Division. “Preparation starts today, both at home and on the road.”
The CHP plans to work with Caltrans and local agencies to monitor highways and respond to weather-related emergencies.
Motorists are urged to reduce their speed on wet roads, increase following distances and avoid sudden braking or steering that could cause vehicles to hydroplane.
Drivers should also check tire tread and pressure, replace worn windshield wipers and make sure all vehicle lights are working before storms arrive.
California law requires headlights to be on when windshield wipers are in continuous use because of rain or other precipitation.
The CHP also warns motorists never to drive through flooded roadways, where moving water can quickly sweep away a vehicle.
“If you encounter a flooded road, remember: ‘Turn Around, Don’t Drown,’” the agency said.
The CHP Coastal Division serves communities from Santa Cruz County to Ventura County. Drivers can follow local CHP social media accounts for updates on traffic conditions and road closures.