By Jon Chown
As a committee of stakeholders from the Pajaro Valley Unified School District prepares a recommendation for possibly closing schools to address declining enrollment and financial challenges, a newly released Stanford University study concluding that school closures generally fail to improve a district’s finances is hard to overlook.
The timing of the study and its conclusions create more questions for the district’s Sustainable Schools Advisory Committee as the school district grapples with shrinking enrollment and budget deficits.
While the committee has not been tasked solely with recommending school closures, district officials say it will evaluate a range of options, including consolidating schools, changing attendance boundaries, relocating programs and repurposing campuses, before presenting recommendations to the Board of Trustees next year.
The Stanford study examined financial records from nearly 800 California school districts between 2011 and 2019 and found that districts closing schools reduced spending by an estimated $447 per student but also lost about $433 per student in revenue, largely because students left the district and took state funding with them. Researchers found no statistically significant improvement in budget deficits or overall financial health after closures.
The findings arrive as PVUSD embarks on what district officials describe as a comprehensive review of how schools are organized, not simply whether some should close. Alejandro Chavez, public information officer for the PVUSD, said the article was shared with the district’s leadership team and the Board of Trustees for their review, but had no further comment on it.
“The SSA meetings will continue to examine a wide range of factors and potential options, including school closures, program consolidation, enrollment trends, fiscal considerations and the impact on students and communities,” said Chavez.
According to the committee’s purpose statement, it is expected to submit written recommendations to the board by November for possible implementation during the 2027-28 school year.
A planning diagram reviewed at PVUSD’s Board of Trustees meeting in June outlined an eight-meeting process that begins with reviewing demographics, enrollment history and attendance patterns before moving into analyses of school capacity, projected enrollment, educational programming and district finances.
Only after those reviews are complete will committee members begin developing and evaluating options for a final recommendation. The superintendent will review the committee’s work before it moves to the Board of Trustees.
Study Shows Closures Cause Revenue Decline
In the Stanford University study, researcher Francis A. Pearman II compared districts that entered what he described as a “closure regime” with similar districts that kept schools open. While districts reduced expenditures after closures, they also experienced significant enrollment losses that translated into lower state revenue under California’s Local Control Funding Formula, which largely funds districts based on student attendance.
Pearman also found districts generally did not reduce staffing proportionally after schools closed. The study reported no
significant reductions in teachers, principals or total district employees, suggesting many personnel costs remained even as enrollment declined.
Pearman’s study concludes that districts should not view school closures as a stand-alone cost-cutting strategy. Instead, it recommends focusing on retaining students after consolidations, maintaining enrollment to preserve state funding and identifying productive uses for former school sites through leasing or repurposing. It also urges districts to weigh broader effects on neighborhoods, student achievement and communities before deciding to close campuses.
PVUSD Board Trustee Misty Navarro said the district’s methodology in studying the issue aligns with the Stanford study, and that is why the district is looking at personnel, transportation and other issues surrounding any possible closure.
“A closure that saves money on paper, but strands families or adds 30 minutes to a bus ride for an elementary student isn’t a win; it’s a cost we’ve just made harder to see,” she said.
Navarro also pointed out that the district is reviewing consolidation and closures at facilities that are aging and need repair. She said the question isn’t whether to just close schools, but whether it makes sense to invest in a site and if there is funding to do it.
“Facilities condition, cost of deferred repairs, and long-term capital planning are being assessed alongside enrollment and equity data,” she said.